Forecasting pupil places needed over 5 to 10 years

WQ.389/2025

WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR EDUCATION AND LIFELONG LEARNING

BY DEPUTY K.M. WILSON OF ST. CLEMENT

QUESTION SUBMITTED ON MONDAY 13th OCTOBER 2025

ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON MONDAY 20th OCTOBER 2025

Question

"Will the Minister advise what forecasting, if any, has been carried out to identify the number of pupil places that will be needed over the next 5 to 10 years (across all areas of education) and, if such forecasting has been undertaken, will he –

1. outline the forecasts and explain how they were determined;
2. detail any capital plans identified to accommodate these forecasts, stating which of any such plans are currently funded and underway;
3. explain what plans are in place, if any, to implement further investment against the forecasts, providing (where possible) the timeframe and the proposed sum of funding for all such investment; and
4. advise whether any potential efficiencies have been identified in the educational estate and, if so, what those efficiencies are and the financial saving it is estimated they would deliver?"

Answer

1. Every year, officers in CYPES calculate predicted pupil numbers based on:

• Current pupil numbers, as recorded in the termly pupil census

• Birth numbers to anticipate future school-age cohorts

• Pupil migration, based on observed changes in the pupil census

• Pupil addresses to identify geographic distribution and catchment trends

• Pupil trends across setting types (e.g. GoJ fee-paying, GoJ non-fee paying, special schools and private settings)

These figures are cross-referenced with population projections prepared by Statistics Jersey. We are currently refreshing the forecasting model now that the autumn census has been completed.

In 2024/25 we had 14,762 pupils in Nursery to Year 13. This is predicted to reduce to 13,669 in 2029/30 and 12,451 in 2034/35.

The projections are felt to be generous as we employ a rolling trend which softens the impact of recent reduction in births, while protecting against future fluctuations.

2. Gas Place (includes La Passerelle primary), Rouge Bouillion, Mont à l'Abbé

Pupil numbers indicate that we need additional places in special schools, investing in Mont à l'Abbé and La Passerelle primary as part of Gas Place and La Passerelle Secondary School (January 2026).

Whilst the forecasts indicate that overall pupil numbers are declining, this is against a backdrop of a continuing significant increase of Special Education Needs and Disability (SEND), which creates pressures for additional space and facilities.

The department regularly review the school estate and have identified several settings where the facilities don't adequately meet the needs or expectations and as such, we are requesting some investment in Gas Place and changes to Rouge Bouillion in the near future. These developments will enable inadequate school buildings to be repurposed.

3. Details of the sums and phasing of future capital investment in the school estate are contained in the proposed budget 2026-29.
4. We are currently exploring all possible opportunities based on the change in demographics for efficiencies and have a working group and project board set up to ensure appropriate oversight and governance of this work.