A reconciliation of the number of newly-registered taxpayers with the estimates for newly-licensed and registered inward migrants
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1240/5/1(434)
WRITTEN QUESTION TO THE MINISTER FOR TREASURY AND RESOURCES BY DEPUTY G.P. SOUTHERN OF ST. HELIER
ANSWER TO BE TABLED ON TUESDAY 18TH JULY 2017
Question
Will the Minister provide States Members with a reconciliation of the numbers given in Question 1(374) of newly registered taxpayers by year with the figures in published population estimates for newly licensed and registered inward migrants by year?
Answer
Any exercise attempting to reconcile taxpayer numbers derived from Taxes Office systems with statistical data published by the Statistics Unit in relation to the Jersey resident population is complex and a full reconciliation is not possible to achieve. Taxpayer data relates to persons resident in the Island and is derived from information collected from individuals. In contrast, the methodology which produces the year end population uses aggregated figures from a range of sources, combined with some assumptions on migration patterns, to provide a best estimate of the change in resident population, and consequently its size. Significantly, the Taxes Office data relates to persons resident at any point during a tax year whereas the Statistics Unit data refers to residents at a particular point in time.
In the context of this question the Deputy is requesting a reconciliation between newly registered taxpayers and registered inward migrants by year. The answer to Question 374 makes it clear that the Taxes Office is unable to provide any detailed breakdown of newly registered taxpayers. The data therefore includes Jersey resident individuals registering for tax purposes for the first time at any point during the year of assessment (such as school leavers and Island resident graduates returning to the Island) as well as those new residents arriving in the Island to take up work or for other purposes at any time during the year of assessment.
The Statistics Unit data in the published annual population estimates provides the estimated net inward migration figure at a specific time in the year, i.e. the difference between the flow of inward and outward migrants, not the inward flow itself.
The table below summarises the figures derived from these two sources:
Year | Newly registered taxpayers (derived from Taxes Office systems) – as published in Question 374 | Net inward migration (derived from population estimates published by the Statistics Unit) |
2007 | 6,700 | 1,400 |
2008 | 5,950 | 1,100 |
2009 | 4,600 | 500 |
2010 | 4,450 | 700 |
2011 | 4,650 | 600 |
2012 | 3,550 | 500 |
2013 | 3,600 | 700 |
2014 | 3,750 | 700 |
2015 | 4,400 | 1,500 |